Monday, April 7, 2008

Idle speculation

Fred93 is one of Prosper's biggest investors. According to Lendingstats, he's the second biggest investor. Since time immemorial, Fred93 has been looking at the late stats from Prosper loans, one of the most rational and insightful long-term analysis of any Prosper metric.

Fred93 also blogged consistently and has made many other attempts to engage Prosper management in conversation. To my knowledge, most of those has been rebuffed. Imagine that, not talking to one's second biggest customer!

Anyhoo, I was idly clicking stuff (after having visited Lendingstats to check my own estimated ROI), when I clicked on Fred93's statistics. I was greatly surprised to see that his bidding activity (measured in successful bids) has greatly declined and that he has, in fact, made no winning bids since March 21st.

Here's the table, courtesy of Lendingstats:

Month Bids
Mar-08 5
Feb-08 5
Jan-08 24
Dec-07 15
Nov-07 43
Oct-07 61
Sep-07 26
Aug-07 11
Jul-07 23
Jun-07 74
May-07 66
Apr-07 42
Mar-07 81
Feb-07 114
Jan-07 86
Dec-06 57
Nov-06 76
Oct-06 110
Sep-06 108
Aug-06 189
Jul-06 180
Jun-06 126
May-06 170
Apr-06 117
Mar-06 1

Has Fred93 finally thrown in the towel?


zcommodore said...

On occasion, I've checked Fred93's bidding but have noticed there are large gaps now and then. In this case, it's only been a few weeks so I'd be surprised if he didn't make another bid or two before the month is over.

Mike said...

It is getting much harder to find loans that fund at appropriate levels.