Thursday, January 18, 2007

More bidding patterns

This one is a biggie. I've been working on it before, especially around the 22nd of December, but I couldn't get it in a nice format to display. Today I worked a bit more and now I'm ready to bring you ... tadaaa....

How each month's lenders bid over time. I plotted Prosper lenders by their tenure on Prosper and then correlated their bidding for each month of their tenure. (I cut off the pre-public lenders and months). So, for the January 2007 bidders, we can only see how they bid in January 2007. For the members that joined in December 2006, we have their bidding pattern for December 2006 and for January 2007. And so forth for every month back to March 2006. Each color series thus represents the bids made by that "generation" of lenders.

Graph should open in separate window/tab if you click on it.

First thing, notice how every generation of lenders start off the month after they join with a big wave of investment that then gradually tapers off over time. I think the first-month surge can be attributed to the fact that the lenders join over the course of the month, so not all borrowers are able to bid for the duration of the month, so the next month we see all those borrowers out in full force.

Also, note the incredible surge in bidding by the members joining in November - the surge in July is similar, but just smaller. I think the November members must be the readers of Business Week. It is clear to see why rates dropped so dramatically. I doubt there were enough listings to accommodate such a flood of new money.

Any other conclusions and remarks are up to you, the reader. Feel free to post your observations here or back on the unofficial home of Prosper lenders, group leaders and borrowers.


Ryan Sinn said...

Great job Hollow :) So we should see a flood of defaults in Feb-Apr ... about 3 months after the 2.5 mil surge? ;) -- Prosper Loans, Lenders, and RAte Analysis said...

Very Cool visuization. Well done.